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December 21, 2017 | ||
Morning Spin | ||
Topspin In Illinois, it's quite common for the governor to be a major player in the news in any given year. After all, the state's chief executive wields the power to raise taxes, decides the fate of legislation both major and minor, and quite often ends up on trial and in prison. Looking back on 2017, Gov. Bruce Rauner certainly dominated the headlines. He figures prominently in seven of the year's Top 10 stories in state government and politics. More often than not, the news was not good for Rauner, who heads into 2018 with a tough re-election campaign ahead of him. Here's the list: 1. Republicans break with Rauner as Madigan leads major income tax hike, ends budget impasse. The effects of this blockbuster development that unfolded over Independence Day weekend are still reverberating, an event that reframed Illinois politics both for the rest of the year and likely for 2018 as well. On Saturday, July 1, budget talks broke down for the umpteenth time during the record-setting impasse. Then, in the afternoon, Speaker Michael Madigan announced there would be a vote Sunday on a tax hike. Fifteen House Republicans broke ranks with Gov. Rauner, approving a measure to raise the income tax from 3.75 percent to 4.95 percent. In the end, Rauner vetoed the bill but was unable to peel off enough Republicans, and he was overridden. The governor's deep pockets had kept GOP lawmakers in line, but ultimately the pain incurred due to the lack of a state budget back in their districts outweighed their loyalty to Rauner. The surprise ending to two years of gridlock set Rauner adrift on a conservative odyssey for the rest of the summer (see #9) and led to a wave of departures from the General Assembly (see #7). Rauner then pivoted back toward the middle, signing an abortion bill (see #6), that landed him a primary challenger (see #8). The tax hike issue will loom large in the 2018 election. Rauner signaled during his Tribune Editorial Board appearance this week that he plans to position himself as the governor candidate who can block what he called the Madigan-J.B. Pritzker graduated income tax plan. He might be able to couple that with a message that Republicans have cut taxes (on the federal level) while Democrats in Illinois raised them, depending on how reaction to the congressional tax cut plan plays out. 2. Lisa Madigan won't run again, sets off crowded race to succeed her. Once considered a lock to run for governor, Madigan surprised the Illinois political world by announcing she wouldn't seek a fifth term, a month after she said she'd go again at the state fair. The pent-up political ambition on the Democratic side was evident, as eight Democrats filed to run the March 20 primary election. 3. J.B. Pritzker enters governor race, quickly consolidates support, sets Democratic self-funding record with $42.2 million. The billionaire Gold Coast Democrat has been on TV all year introducing himself to voters and attacking Rauner. Kenilworth businessman Chris Kennedy held the early lead in public opinion polls, but Pritzker has overtaken him. 4. State school funding formula revised for first time in decades. School districts missed state aid payments as the budget lawmakers passed was contingent on a rewrite of the state funding formula also becoming law. Rauner spent months criticizing versions of the bill as a CPS "bailout," and he even vetoed one that lawmakers put on his desk. But desperately needing a win as he mapped a re-election bid and needing to avoid taking blame if schools started shutting down without state funding, Rauner cut a deal with Democratic legislative leaders. He listed it as his No. 1 accomplishment this week. 5. Pritkzer sought political office from Rod Blagojevich, 2008 FBI wiretaps show. The Tribune published a story on May 31 detailing how campaign donor Pritzker sought an appointment from Blagojevich. "My interest in holding public office is, you know, always large," Pritzker told Blagojevich in a call Nov. 6, 2008. Pritzker's calls with Blagojevich came at a time when it was widely known that the governor was the target of an intensifying, yearslong federal investigation into the governor's administration and fundraising activities. The FBI would arrest Blagojevich the following month. The audio from those calls is likely to resurface next year in the governor's race. 6. Rauner flip-flops on abortion bill, angers conservative Republicans. In April, Rauner told Republican lawmakers he would veto a measure that would expand taxpayer-subsidized abortions for women covered by Medicaid and state employee group health insurance. At the time, the governor was trying to keep the House GOP united amid the budget impasse. In late September, Rauner signed the bill, saying that in the end, he has "to be consistent with my values." Republicans quickly launched surprisingly harsh attacks, calling Rauner a failed governor destined to serve only one term. 7. Exodus from the Capitol. The long-running Rauner-Madigan war had its casualties. From a Sept. 20 story: Since Rauner was sworn into office in January 2015, at least 43 of 118 House seats and at least 14 of 59 Senate districts have already seen or will see changes by the time next year's elections are concluded. That's 36 percent of the House and nearly a quarter of the Senate. All told, it's one-third of the entire General Assembly. The tax hike vote is driving some of the churn: Of 15 House Republicans who initially voted for the income tax hike, only six are running for re-election. Five of the six have drawn primary challengers. 8. Rauner gets a primary challenger in Ives. The governor's signature on the abortion bill sent conservatives (see #6) looking for someone to take him on in the March primary. They found their standard-bearer in state Rep. Jeanne Ives, a three-term lawmaker from Wheaton known for throwing rhetorical bombs on the House floor. Now Rauner has to fight a two-front political war in 2018, trying to withstand a challenge from his party's base voters while Democratic governor hopefuls make him the focus of their own primary campaigns. 9. Rauner's summertime right turn, staff struggles. Days after losing the state budget battle in July, Rauner parted ways with longtime staff and replaced many of them with operatives from the Illinois Policy Institute, a conservative think tank more accustomed to criticizing government from the outside than running it from the inside. That move didn't work out so well, as Rauner dealt with a series of stumbles. Six weeks later, the new communications team was out, followed later by the chief of staff replacement. 10. Illinois' richest man Ken Griffin gives $20 million to Rauner campaign. It's the largest individual contribution in state history that didn't come from a candidate himself. The May donation was an early escalation in a big-money 2018 governor contest that's expected to shatter previous spending records.
What's on tap *Mayor Rahm Emanuel has no public schedule. *Gov. Rauner has no public schedule. *The Morning Spin's Top Ten Chicago political stories of the year is coming Friday morning.
From the notebook *Roskam a no-show at White House: U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam skipped Wednesday's White House celebration with President Donald Trump after passage of the $1.5 trillion tax overhaul he has touted. The Wheaton Republican "was invited but he's in meetings on the Hill so was unable to make it," spokeswoman Veronica Vera said in an email. Several of his GOP colleagues stood shoulder-to-shoulder with Trump outside the White House as the president enthused: "It's always a lot of fun when you win." Roskam is on the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, chairs its Tax Policy Subcommittee and helped shape and sell the bill. Urging passage of the measure on Tuesday, he said his constituents were longing for tax relief. "After months of work developing a tax code that prioritizes middle-income families and small businesses, Congress has sent a bill to the President's desk that I am pleased to say accomplishes that goal," Roskam said in a statement. Seven Democrats have signed up for the primary race to take on the six-term Republican in the northwest suburban 6th Congressional District. One rival, Sean Casten of Downers Grove, in a statement Wednesday said: "Republicans in the House and Senate put corporations and the wealthiest Americans first, while again turning their backs on middle-class families." (Katherine Skiba) *Lobbying: An Amazon lobbyist registering in Georgia has created some buzz in Atlanta as journalists frenetically look for clues about where the giant online retailer might put its next headquarters. The company told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that lobbyist Jacob Oster's work there has nothing to do with the company's HQ2 search. Where else is Oster a registered lobbyist? As it turns out, he registered in Illinois more than a month ago, according to state documents.
What we're writing *Rauner won't say if he has moral responsibility for Quincy veterans' illnesses, deaths. *Rauner: Federal tax changes help his tax-cut agenda. *10 years after red light cameras came to suburbs, state hasn't assessed whether they've improved safety. *5 major Chicago sports teams join together to combat violence. *Bottled Blonde sues Chicago in liquor license fight. *What Obamacare changes in the tax bill mean for Illinois. *Van Dyke lawyer slams former State's Attorney Alvarez, alleges prosecution motivated by media, political pressures.
What we're reading *Just 5, Chicago boy is struck by a bullet for second time in two years. *Look through the Tribune's best photos of the year. *5-year-old calls 911 to report that Grinch plans to steal Christmas. (There's no need to worry or sit around bumming. The Grinch always fails to keep Christmas from coming.)
Follow the money *Democratic candidate for attorney general Sharon Fairley reported putting $20,000 into her campaign. *Track Illinois campaign contributions in real time here and here.
Beyond Chicago *Trump gets the Republican tax bill. *How the GOP got it done. *Science tries to explain sexual harassers. *What companies say about their post-net neutrality plans. |
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